Another Tropical Depression in the Caribbean!

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Stormy Caribbean Weather

The Weather Channel monitors another tropical depression. Will the Caribbean see another Storm affect the Caribbean this hurricane season?

See the article below with links to the website.

Caribbean Invest 93L May Become a Tropical Depression; Moisture Could Fuel Heavy Rain in Florida, East Coast This Weekend

By Jonathan Belles and Chris Dolce
Oct 26 2017 06:00 AM EDT
weather.com
Storm Could Get a Boost From the Tropics

Meteorologist Domenica Davis looks at the forecast for early next week in the Northeast.

Story Highlights

The western Caribbean is being monitored for possible tropical development this week.

This potential system will bring heavy rain to parts of Central America in the near-term.

Heavy rainfall and gusty winds may affect Florida this weekend.

This system will also provide an injection of moisture to an East Coast storm system Sunday-Monday.

A broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean is being monitored for possible development into a tropical depression as it soaks Central America this week. This system or its moisture could also contribute to heavy rain in South Florida this weekend and provide an injection of moisture to an East Coast storm system early next week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted the northwest Caribbean for a medium chance of tropical development through Saturday. Those odds could increase or decrease this week depending on the evolution of atmospheric ingredients near this region.

This system has been dubbed Invest 93L by the NHC, which is a naming convention used to identify features that are being monitored for possible tropical development.

(MORE: What is an Invest?)

Invest 93L

Invest 93L

The area in the hatched polygon indicates the general area of potential tropical development, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms near Central America, associated with Invest 93L, have gradually become better organized.

In the near-term, the area of low pressure will contribute to a heavy rain threat in Central America. The downpours could eventually lead to flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall Forecast Through Saturday

Rainfall Forecast Through Saturday

Ocean temperatures continue to run 1 to 3 degrees above average, or in the mid-80s, across the majority of the Caribbean Sea, which is plenty supportive for tropical growth and development. Land interaction, however, is currently a hindrance to Invest 93L’s ability to further organize.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

A well-defined circulation center with collocated shower and thunderstorm activity is needed for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop.

There is a window of opportunity for that development to occur as Invest 93L moves over the northwest Caribbean Friday-Saturday. By Sunday, upper-level winds will be hostile for any development as Invest 93L gets pulled into an East Coast storm system (more on that below).

Heavy Rain Possible in Florida This Weekend

No matter whether this system becomes a tropical depression or not, the moisture from it will get drawn north and then northeastward by a southward dip in the jet stream that will sweep through the central and eastern states late this week into the weekend.

As a result, the area of low pressure or a moisture surge associated with it will get pulled toward South Florida by this weekend.

The main impact from this system in southern Florida at this time appears to be heavy rainfall Saturday into early Sunday. Some gusty winds are also possible, particularly in the coastal waters.

Invest 93L or its moisture may get pulled toward southern Florida or Cuba this weekend.

Moisture Injection For Strong East Coast Storm

By Sunday, the area of enhanced moisture associated with Invest 93L will be in the western Atlantic Ocean just off the southeast U.S. coastline.

This moisture will then get pulled into a storm system advancing through the eastern states, providing additional fuel for heavy rain in parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions Sunday into Monday. The heavy rain may cause some flooding problems in the Northeast region.

For more on this story, click the link below.

(MORE: Powerful Coastal Storm Could Bring Damaging Winds, Flooding Rainfall to the Northeast Starting This Weekend)

Western Caribbean a Hot Spot For Late-Season Development

You’ll note in the chart below that there is a strong clustering of dots in the southwestern and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is a hotbed of tropical origins that we’ll be watching through the end of October and into November.

As the season begins to wind down, the warmest waters – 80 degrees and above – in the Atlantic Basin will recede to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic while wind shear and dry air generally increase across the basin.

Origins for November tropical storms and hurricanes.

November sees one more tropical storm or hurricane, on average, according to the National Hurricane Center. More than 7 percent of the season’s activity is yet to come in terms of average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric used to measure wind energy produced by tropical cyclones.

These cyclones typically move northeastward from the Caribbean or western Atlantic ahead of sweeping cold fronts from North America. These systems can threaten Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda but can occasionally threaten areas closer to the U.S. East Coast, especially in October and early November.

Typical tracks for November tropical storms and hurricanes.

To read more, see:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2017-10-24-late-october-caribbean-tropical-system-invest-93l

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