Tropical Storm Beryl intensifies east of the Lesser Antilles.

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(The Weather Channel)

At a Glance
  • Tropical Storm Beryl is located over 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
  • Beryl could become a hurricane by this weekend, well east of the Lesser Antilles.
  • This tiny system will encounter wind shear this weekend, likely ripping it apart.
  • An increase in showers and gusty winds is expected in the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Beryl is now quickly intensifying between west Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and it could be the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic.

The newly formed tropical storm is currently over 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, moving west.

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Current Storm Status

(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)

Satellite imagery indicates convection has increased in organization. In fact, an eye feature has been occasionally visible.

Warm water temperatures and low wind shear allowed Beryl to intensify on Thursday. The small size of this tropical storm has also allowed it to quickly develop.

It could make a run at hurricane status on Friday night into Saturday before worsening conditions begin to impact the system.

Upper-level winds will become hostile well before the system approaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend. These shearing winds should weaken this system as it is reaching the Lesser Antilles. Dry air is also plentiful near the system and will likely play some weakening role.

Beryl’s small size makes it more fragile compared to larger systems that can control their environment. This may make Beryl’s collapse more rapid.

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Current Satellite and Wind Shear

(The current tropical system is shown by the icon at lower right. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.)

Even if the system degenerates into a tropical wave, as forecast, an uptick in shower activity, including some locally heavy rain, and gusty winds are expected in the Lesser Antilles Sunday into Monday.

If this system can maintain strong winds, tropical storm force winds could arrive somewhere in the Leeward or Windward Islands on Sunday morning or afternoon.

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Projected Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

A Second Tropical System Near Bermuda

Another system, dubbed Invest 96L, currently centered southwest of Bermuda has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression by the end of this week, according to the NHC.

Regardless if it develops, this area of low pressure will track west-northwest, north and then northeast away from the U.S. coastline into the weekend. A cold front moving off the East Coast by Friday night will be responsible for deflecting this system out to sea.

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